Where macro timing meets thesis conviction. A framework that pairs S&P 500 Elliott Wave positioning with the five-stage AI build-out and a ten-slot concentrated portfolio — anchored to Situational Awareness LP.
The original April 17 peak designation at 7,147 was invalidated by demonstrated rally extension. Recalibrated May 9, 2026 per Rule 2.4: current Phase 1 rally extends to a provisional peak of 7,400-7,600 by June 2026. Phase 2 follows with an A-B-C corrective wave bottoming in Q4 2026 (target zone 5,731-6,314, timing tied to midterm election cycle). Phase 3 completes the larger structure with a final Wave 5 push to ~8,980 by Q3 2027.
AI is a capital cycle, not a product cycle. Each stage unlocks the next. Training compute came first, custom silicon followed, and we are now deep in the third stage — the power and grid infrastructure that hyperscaler compute clusters require at gigawatt scale.
NVIDIA GPUs, data-center buildout, model training capex. Peak intensity behind us; capex growth decelerating.
Custom silicon, fabs, advanced packaging, HBM memory. Intel / Trainium / TPU arms race intensifies.
Fuel cells, nuclear SMRs, gas turbines, behind-the-meter power. The bottleneck limiting everything above and below it.
Enterprise AI deployment, API revenue, model serving infrastructure. Training spend converts to recurring revenue.
Robotics, autonomy, AI in manufacturing and logistics. Next decade's compounding opportunity.
The portfolio is built for the recalibration we see coming. Under 60/40 SA LP weighting, every position must either be validated by Situational Awareness LP or serve an explicit defensive role. No theme-doubling, no lottery tickets sized above risk tolerance, no positions below 3%.
| Ticker | Weight | Tier | Framework Signal | Stage | Strat A · W |
|---|
Realized gains across the framework book, queue, and discretionary trades. Tier A names sit inside the framework or align with its discipline. Tier C names are off-framework discretionary positions — included for traceability and self-accountability.
Position trading uses 200 EMA as the regime filter and Bollinger Band squeeze for breakout timing. Weekly chart sets direction, daily chart times the entry. Every core holding below is read against the same framework.
Five names in the deployment queue. Each has a framework-defined entry trigger — a price range, a phase condition, or a research milestone. Cash stays deployed only when framework discipline is met.
| Ticker | Target | Phase | Entry Trigger | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | 9% | Phase 3 | $650 – $720 | –20 to –28% |
| COHR | 4% | Phase 3 | $240 – $280 | –18 to –30% |
| EQT | 3% | Phase 2 | Current prices acceptable | Ready now |
| KRC | 3% | Phase 3 | SPX –10% or deeper | Wait |
| SNDK | 2.5% | Phase 3 | Research stage | Investigate |