The AI Investment Cycle.
Where macro timing meets thesis conviction. A framework that pairs S&P 500 Elliott Wave positioning with the five-stage AI build-out and a ten-slot concentrated portfolio — anchored to Situational Awareness LP.
Where we are on the S&P 500.
Updated to green count master framework May 18, 2026 per Rule 2.4. The framework operates within green Wave (5) of the Cycle degree count, in progress since April 2025 low at 5,065. Blue Wave (3) within green (5) peaked at 7,517 on May 14, 2026 (intraweek ATH), with weekly close at 7,408 the following day. Blue (4) corrective is now expected, targeting the 5,794-6,400 zone (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of blue 3) by Q4 2026. Blue (5) then projects to ~9,200 (100% Fibonacci extension) by mid-2027, completing green Wave (5) and the cycle.
Strategy A · Weekly
Strategy B · Watchlist Entry Timing
The five stages of the AI build-out.
AI is a capital cycle, not a product cycle. Each stage unlocks the next. Training compute came first, custom silicon followed, and we are now deep in the third stage — the power and grid infrastructure that hyperscaler compute clusters require at gigawatt scale.
Training Compute
NVIDIA GPUs, data-center buildout, model training capex. Peak intensity behind us; capex growth decelerating.
Chip Infrastructure
Custom silicon, fabs, advanced packaging, HBM memory. Intel / Trainium / TPU arms race intensifies.
Power & Grid
Fuel cells, nuclear SMRs, gas turbines, behind-the-meter power. The bottleneck limiting everything above and below it.
QueueSNDK · APLD · IREN · RIOT · CLSK
Inference Monetization
Enterprise AI deployment, API revenue, model serving infrastructure. Training spend converts to recurring revenue.
Physical AI
Robotics, autonomy, AI in manufacturing and logistics. Next decade's compounding opportunity.
Ten slots. Fifty percent cash.
The portfolio is built for the recalibration we see coming. Under 60/40 SA LP weighting, every position must either be validated by Situational Awareness LP or serve an explicit defensive role. No theme-doubling, no lottery tickets sized above risk tolerance, no positions below 3%.
| Ticker | Weight | Tier | Framework SignalStage | Strat A · W |
|---|
Sixteen weeks. What stuck.
Realized gains across the framework book, queue, and discretionary trades. Tier A names sit inside the framework or align with its discipline. Tier C names are off-framework discretionary positions — included for traceability and self-accountability.
Activity: 26 winning tickers · 52 closed lots
Open framework book: 7 positions · all framework-aligned
vs SPX YTD · +37.45% excess return
Strategy A across the book.
Position trading uses 200 EMA as the regime filter and Bollinger Band squeeze for breakout timing. Weekly chart sets direction, daily chart times the entry. Every core holding below is read against the same framework.
What we are watching.
The deployment queue. Each name has a framework-defined entry trigger — a price range, a phase condition, or a research milestone. Cash stays deployed only when framework discipline is met.
| Ticker | Tier | Theme | Entry Zone | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 3% | Phase 3 (T1) | $950 – $1,100 | ZONE_STALE · -27% needed |
| APLD | 2.5% | Phase 2 (T2-SA) | $18 – $22 | ZONE_BUILDING · -17% needed |
| IREN | 2% | Phase 2-3 (T2-SA) | $24 – $30 | ZONE_STALE · -21% needed |
| RIOT | 2% | Phase 2-3 (T2-SA) | $8 – $11 | ZONE_BUILDING · -21% needed |
| CLSK | 1.5% | Phase 2-3 (T2-SA) | $8 – $10 | ZONE_BUILDING · -18% needed |
| MU | 2% | Phase 3+ (T1) | $520 – $600 | ZONE_STALE · -23% needed |